Something quietly shifted in crypto markets this week. A Bitcoin price bottom may actually be forming — and the evidence isn’t coming from speculation or social media hype. It’s coming from onchain data, macroeconomic signals, and an unexpected crack in the AI sector that’s been hoarding investor capital for months.
- Bitcoin price bottom signals are strengthening as onchain data shows seller exhaustion not seen since 2022 cycle lows.
- Weak US jobs data slashed Fed rate hike odds from 64% to 54%, directly boosting Bitcoin price bottom hopes.
- AI chipmakers including Applied Materials and Western Digital dropped 9% or more, accelerating a shift toward scarce assets.
- The Fed balance sheet sits at $6.73 trillion with capacity for $40 billion in monthly purchases, a tailwind for BTC.
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A Jobs Miss That Moved Markets
On Thursday, the US Labor Department reported that non-farm payrolls grew by just 57,000 in June — less than half the 113,000 economists had expected, according to Yahoo Finance. It didn’t stop there. The department also revised April and May figures downward by a combined 74,000 jobs, painting a picture of an economy that’s decelerating faster than the Federal Reserve had factored in.
The immediate effect on interest rate expectations was significant. Traders using the CME FedWatch Tool cut the probability of a September Fed rate hike to 54%, down from 64% the prior day. That single percentage-point swing matters more than it sounds — rate hike expectations are one of the most direct levers on risk asset pricing, and Bitcoin sits squarely in that category. Many analysts now argue that a confirmed Bitcoin price bottom would coincide precisely with this kind of shift in rate expectations.
Gold picked up on the same signal, recovering a portion of the 8% it had shed over the prior two weeks. When gold and Bitcoin move in the same direction on a macro catalyst, it usually means investors are treating both as hedges against monetary loosening rather than speculative plays — a meaningful distinction.
Bitcoin Price Bottom: What the Onchain Data Actually Shows
The Bitcoin price bottom thesis gets its strongest support not from price charts but from what’s happening beneath the surface of the blockchain. CryptoQuant analyst gaah_im published findings this week showing that Bitcoin’s realized profit-to-loss ratio has dropped to its lowest level since 2022 — the year BTC bottomed out near $15,500 after the collapse of FTX and Terra Luna.
More telling still: the net percentage of Bitcoin supply currently in profit relative to total supply has flipped negative. In plain English, the average BTC holder is now underwater. That sounds bearish on the surface, but historically it’s been one of the most reliable contrarian signals in crypto. When the majority of supply is at a loss, the sellers who were going to sell have already sold. Capitulation, as traders call it, tends to mark the floor. This is precisely the kind of onchain environment that has preceded every major Bitcoin price bottom in prior cycles.
According to gaah_im’s analysis on CryptoQuant, the net percentage of supply in profit relative to total supply has turned negative, which historically has marked cycle bottoms with extreme precision.
Bitcoin had dipped to a low of $57,750 earlier in the week before clawing back above $61,000 following the jobs data. That recovery, modest as it is, carries more weight when you pair it with those onchain exhaustion signals. The sellers appear to be running out of steam — another reason experienced traders are watching this potential Bitcoin price bottom closely.
AI Stocks Crack — and Capital Has to Go Somewhere
The macro backdrop alone wouldn’t be enough to make a compelling case. What makes this week’s setup more interesting is the simultaneous crackup in the AI sector — specifically among the hardware companies that have been riding the generative AI wave since early 2023.
Shares of SanDisk, Seagate, Western Digital, and Applied Materials each fell 9% or more in a single Thursday session. These aren’t fringe names — they’re core components of the AI infrastructure stack, the companies supplying the storage and fabrication capacity that makes large-scale model training possible. When they drop this hard in a single day, it signals that investors are questioning whether near-term AI hardware demand can justify current valuations.
The Nasdaq 100 Index erased three days’ worth of gains in the same session. That kind of drawdown in a momentum-driven index forces portfolio rebalancing, and some of that capital needs a new home. Gold and Bitcoin are the obvious candidates — both are scarce by design, both are non-sovereign, and both have historically absorbed flows when tech valuations correct sharply. For those tracking the Bitcoin price bottom narrative, this rotation adds a compelling demand-side argument.
This isn’t a new dynamic. We saw a version of it in early 2022 when growth stocks unwound and some institutional money rotated into digital assets before the broader crypto bear market took hold. The difference this time is that the macro environment is pointing toward easing rather than tightening — which changes the calculus considerably.
The Fed Balance Sheet and the Oil Variable
One underappreciated factor in the Bitcoin price bottom story is where the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet currently sits. At $6.73 trillion, it has been largely stagnant — but the Fed’s existing mandate still allows for up to $40 billion per month in short-term Treasury and bond purchases. That’s dormant firepower that could be activated quickly if economic data continues to soften.
Weak job creation combined with reduced inflationary pressure tends to be the exact recipe that prompts central banks to expand liquidity. More liquidity in the system historically benefits hard-capped assets like Bitcoin, which can’t be inflated away the way fiat-denominated savings can. A liquidity expansion of this kind has historically confirmed a Bitcoin price bottom before the broader market recognizes it.
Crude WTI oil has also dropped below $70 per barrel, partly on news that Qatar’s Foreign Ministry cited ‘positive progress’ in US-Iran diplomatic talks. Lower energy prices reduce headline inflation, which in turn gives the Fed more political room to pivot toward stimulus. It’s a chain reaction — and right now most of the links are pointing in the same direction.
The Strategy Overhang
Not everything in Bitcoin’s current picture is bullish. One persistent headwind has been Strategy — the company formerly known as MicroStrategy and the single largest corporate holder of Bitcoin. Despite maintaining what looks like a healthy position on paper — an 8% net leverage ratio and $56.8 billion in enterprise value — the company has been accelerating issuance of new MSTR shares to buy back debt and cover dividends on preferred stocks.
That share dilution has frustrated investors who hoped Strategy’s aggressive BTC accumulation strategy would be a one-way amplifier of Bitcoin exposure. Instead, it’s introduced complexity and uncertainty. When a company that’s supposed to be a Bitcoin proxy starts issuing equity to service liabilities, it raises questions about the sustainability of the model — and those questions have weighed on sentiment.
That said, if broader market conditions improve and the macro rotation into scarce assets accelerates, Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings could easily outweigh the dilution concerns. The company is, at its core, a leveraged bet on BTC price appreciation. In a rising-price environment, that math works in investors’ favor — and a confirmed Bitcoin price bottom would be the clearest green light for that thesis.
Is $70,000 Actually in Play?
The honest answer is: possibly, but the path matters more than the destination right now. Bitcoin needs to convincingly hold above $61,000 and build momentum before $70,000 becomes a realistic near-term target. The prior rejection at $82,500 two months ago is still fresh in traders’ minds, and the market has a habit of testing patience before rewarding it.
What’s different today compared to a month ago is the convergence of signals. The Bitcoin price bottom case now rests on three independent pillars: onchain seller exhaustion, a macro pivot away from rate hikes, and a capital rotation out of overextended AI stocks. Any one of those would be interesting. All three happening simultaneously is worth paying attention to.
If AI sector weakness deepens into a broader Nasdaq correction — and there are real reasons to think it might, given stretched valuations — the rotation trade into Bitcoin and gold could have much further to run than current price action suggests. The question isn’t whether Bitcoin can reach $70,000. It’s whether the conditions for that Bitcoin price bottom are finally aligning. Right now, more evidence points to yes than it has in months.
Source: Cointelegraph
Frequently Asked Questions
What onchain indicators suggest a Bitcoin price bottom has formed?
CryptoQuant analyst gaah_im points to Bitcoin’s realized profit-to-loss ratio hitting its lowest level since 2022, and the net percentage of supply in profit turning negative — a condition that has historically marked cycle bottoms with high precision.
How did the US jobs report affect Bitcoin’s price?
June non-farm payrolls came in at just 57,000 against an expected 113,000, and prior months were revised down by 74,000 jobs. That soft data cut the odds of a September Fed rate hike and pushed traders toward scarce assets like Bitcoin and gold.
Why are AI stock losses relevant to Bitcoin’s outlook?
When high-momentum sectors like AI shed value rapidly, institutional traders often rotate capital into uncorrelated assets. Storage and semiconductor names like SanDisk, Seagate, and Applied Materials all fell 9% or more in a single session, making Bitcoin and gold attractive destinations.
What is Strategy’s role in Bitcoin’s recent weakness?
Strategy has been issuing new MSTR shares to buy back debt and cover preferred stock dividends. That dilution disappointed existing holders and added selling pressure to Bitcoin despite the company maintaining a healthy 8% net leverage ratio and a significant enterprise value.
