The Bitcoin price pushed to within touching distance of $65,000 over the weekend, buoyed by an unexpected geopolitical catalyst — a pledge from US President Donald Trump that a peace deal between the United States and Iran would be signed on Sunday, reopening the Strait of Hormuz to global shipping. For a market that had been grinding through a punishing correction, the news landed at exactly the right moment.
- Bitcoin price climbed toward $65K after Trump announced a US-Iran peace deal on Truth Social.
- The Bitcoin price rally coincided with rising open interest and falling funding rates — a classic short-squeeze setup.
- Trump pledged the Strait of Hormuz will be open to all vessels once the deal is signed.
- Traders say the 200-week moving average is holding as support, with $65K–$67K as the critical resistance zone.
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Trump’s Truth Social Post Moves Markets
Late Saturday, Trump posted on Truth Social that a deal was imminent. ‘The Deal is scheduled to get signed tomorrow, and immediately after it is signed, the Hormuz Strait is OPEN TO ALL,’ he wrote, in characteristically emphatic capital letters. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most strategically critical oil chokepoints, and any disruption there ripples into energy prices, inflation expectations, and, increasingly, crypto sentiment.
According to data from TradingView, the Bitcoin price hit a local high of $64,750 on Bitstamp shortly after the announcement before settling into a consolidation range around $64,000 heading into the weekly close. That’s not a vertical spike, but in the context of where BTC had been trading — grinding near support levels for weeks — it was enough to shift the mood noticeably among traders watching the charts.
It’s worth stepping back to appreciate how unusual this dynamic is. A few years ago, the idea that a presidential peace announcement in the Middle East would directly catalyse a Bitcoin rally would have sounded far-fetched. Today it’s almost routine. Crypto has woven itself deeply enough into the global financial fabric that macro events — wars, treaties, central bank decisions — now register in real time on BTC/USD charts.
Bitcoin Price Technical Picture: Bears on the Back Foot
Geopolitics aside, what’s arguably more interesting is what the technical picture is saying right now. Trader SuperBro, posting on X, described near-term Bitcoin price action in a single word: ‘constructive.’ More specifically, they flagged that the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) was holding as support — a level that the crypto community treats with near-religious reverence, even if its track record isn’t spotless. Cointelegraph has previously reported that the 200-week SMA has historically been ‘unreliable’ as a definitive bear-market floor, so blind faith in it would be misplaced. Still, the fact it’s holding at all is better than the alternative.
SuperBro also dismissed bearish breakdown patterns that some chartists had flagged, instead pointing to a naked point of control (nPOC) level sitting in the $65,000–$67,000 range on exchange order books. ‘If we can rip through this zone then the bear case takes a massive hit,’ they wrote. That’s the key test. A clean break above $67K would flip a lot of neutral observers into cautious bulls — and force some short sellers to cover in a hurry.
Open Interest Signals That Could Fuel a Short Squeeze
Perhaps the most compelling piece of analysis came from trading account Cryptic Trades, which identified a setup that experienced traders tend to get genuinely excited about: rising open interest combined with falling funding rates. On its own, each of those data points tells a partial story. Together, they paint a specific picture — one where bears, not bulls, are driving the momentum.
Normally, when Bitcoin price rises, you’d expect to see funding rates climb too, as leveraged longs pile in and pay a premium to stay in their positions. When that doesn’t happen — when funding stays flat or even dips while open interest grows — it suggests the new market participants opening positions are overwhelmingly on the short side. They’re betting the rally fails.
‘It’s finally happening,’ Cryptic Trades told its X followers, referring to what it described as the conditions for a durable bottom. ‘These aren’t longs aggressively chasing the move. These are bears doubling down, increasing their short positions, and betting that the downtrend isn’t over. This is exactly the kind of setup that generally marks durable bottoms.’
The logic is straightforward, if counterintuitive. When sentiment is overwhelmingly bearish and short positions are stacked high, the market has essentially loaded a spring. A sustained move upward doesn’t just attract buyers — it forces shorts to close their positions (i.e., buy back Bitcoin to cover losses), which adds even more buying pressure. The result is an aggressive short squeeze that can take prices far higher than the fundamentals alone might justify. Liquidation heatmap data from CoinGlass confirmed that the $64,750 local high ran directly into a dense cluster of potential short liquidations — exactly where you’d expect to see resistance turn into fuel.
What This Means for the Broader Crypto Market
Zoom out a little and this moment sits within a genuinely complicated macro context for Bitcoin price. On one hand, institutional adoption continues to expand — spot Bitcoin ETFs in the US have accumulated significant assets under management since their January 2024 launch, providing a structural demand floor that didn’t exist in previous cycles. On the other hand, the macro environment remains uncertain: interest rate expectations keep shifting, and the dollar’s strength has created headwinds for all risk assets.
The Iran peace deal — if it holds — adds another layer. Lower geopolitical tension in the Middle East tends to suppress oil prices over time. Lower oil means lower inflation pressure, which gives central banks more room to ease monetary policy. Easier monetary policy is historically good for Bitcoin. The chain of causation is longer and more tenuous than a direct news trigger, but it’s real. Markets are forward-looking, and traders are already pricing in those downstream effects.
Then there’s the miner capitulation angle, which adds texture to the current moment. Recent data suggested Bitcoin miners were under significant financial stress — selling BTC reserves to cover operational costs, which typically signals a market bottom is close. When miners stop selling (because they’ve either capitulated fully or prices have recovered enough to cover margins), a persistent source of sell-side pressure disappears. Combined with the short-squeeze setup Cryptic Trades outlined, that’s a meaningful shift in the supply-demand equation.
The $65K–$67K Zone Is the Line in the Sand
For all the optimism, it’s important not to get ahead of the data. The Bitcoin price hasn’t broken out yet — it’s approaching a significant resistance zone, not clearing it. The $65K–$67K range represents the last major swing low and a high-volume cluster on order books. That’s where a lot of underwater longs from earlier in the year are sitting, waiting to exit at breakeven. That selling pressure is real and will need to be absorbed before any clean continuation higher.
If Bitcoin can push through that zone convincingly — ideally on high volume, with funding rates staying subdued and open interest continuing to rise — then the technical picture changes meaningfully. The bear case, as SuperBro put it, ‘takes a massive hit.’ What follows could be a rapid repricing toward the highs of the cycle. If it stalls and fails, the short sellers get vindicated and the pattern resets lower.
Either way, Sunday’s close gave bulls something they hadn’t had in a while: a credible reason for optimism backed by both macro tailwinds and on-chain data. Whether the US-Iran peace deal holds, and whether that $65K–$67K ceiling finally cracks, will likely define how the next few weeks of Bitcoin price action play out.
Source: Cointelegraph
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Bitcoin price rise on news of a US-Iran peace deal?
Geopolitical risk events — especially those involving oil supply routes like the Strait of Hormuz — tend to weigh on global risk assets. A peace deal reduces that uncertainty, encouraging investors to move back into riskier assets including Bitcoin. The market responded almost immediately to Trump’s Truth Social post.
What does rising open interest and falling funding rates mean for Bitcoin price?
It typically signals that new short positions are being opened rather than leveraged longs chasing the rally. Analysts like Cryptic Trades argue this is healthy — it means bears are doubling down, which sets the stage for a short squeeze if prices keep climbing.
What is the significance of the $65K–$67K zone for Bitcoin?
That range sits at the last major swing low and coincides with a high-volume point of control on exchange order books. A clean break above it would seriously damage the bear case and could accelerate the move higher, according to trader SuperBro.
